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Libya Press
Qatar is moving liquefied natural gas tankers back into the Middle East this week, positioning itself to restart exports within weeks of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, according to ship-tracking data. The critical waterway — through which roughly 20% of global LNG and 25% of seaborne oil trade flowed — has been effectively shut since February 28. A provisional US–Iran peace deal, expected to be signed Friday, could restore safe navigation and ease the worst energy supply disruption since the 1970s.
The Strait of Hormuz closure removed close to 20% of global oil supplies and triggered the largest energy trade disruption in industry history. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on March 8, peaking at $126. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated a full-quarter closure would raise WTI to $98 and cut global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points. QatarEnergy curtailed production in early March before Iranian missile strikes hit the Ras Laffan complex mid-month, causing an estimated $20 billion per year in lost revenue.
QatarEnergy has informed customers that it can restore approximately 50% of its LNG production capacity within one month of safe navigation being restored, Bloomberg reported on June 16, citing sources familiar with the plans. Within two months, Qatar aims to return 80% of its total capacity. The remaining 20% — infrastructure damaged by Iranian missile strikes on the Ras Laffan complex — will require years of repair. At least four empty Qatari-owned LNG vessels have already begun heading back toward the Middle East after being idle, ship-tracking data shows. Five loaded tankers — Al Ghashamiya, Lebrethah, Fuwairit, Rasheeda, and Disha — previously moved toward the strait in April when a brief reopening window appeared, carrying cargoes destined for Pakistan and India.
The repositioning extends beyond Qatar. Two oil tankers made sharp u-turns in the Indian Ocean this week, abandoning voyages to Africa to redirect toward Fujairah. Empty supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman have risen to approximately 60, up from three dozen earlier in June. Iran-linked vessels have also begun shifting positions, with four ships sailing toward the strait. European gas prices tumbled 6% on Monday following the deal announcement, hitting their lowest level in five weeks.
For Libya, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz carries significant economic implications. As a major oil producer whose exports depend on global energy market stability, Libya stands to benefit from stabilized oil prices and restored shipping lanes. The crisis has underscored the vulnerability of energy-dependent economies to geopolitical chokepoints — a reality Libya knows well given its own production disruptions from internal conflict. North African LNG importers, including Egypt and Tunisia, could see improved supply availability and lower prices as Qatari exports resume. The $20 billion annual hit to QatarEnergy also signals potential shifts in long-term LNG contract allocations that may redirect supply dynamics across the Mediterranean basin.
The US–Iran interim agreement, outlined in a 14-point preliminary memorandum, pledges to end mutual blockades and restore safe passage through the strait. While the deal is set to be signed on Friday, shipowners remain cautious — many are in wait-and-see mode until insurance coverage and security guarantees are confirmed. If the agreement holds, the resumption of Qatari LNG exports could ease global gas markets significantly, reducing prices for consumers across Europe and Asia. For a world that has endured four months of energy turmoil, the sight of Qatari tankers heading back toward Hormuz is the most hopeful signal yet that the worst of the crisis may be ending.
— LibyaPress / Economy Desk