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🛒 تسوق الآنTrump's Libya Deal: A Forced Marriage Between East and West
Analysts describe Washington's new Libya strategy as an uneasy alliance between rival factions, raising questions about long-term stability in North Africa
Washington's latest diplomatic initiative to resolve Libya's protracted crisis is drawing sharp comparisons to a "forced marriage" between the country's rival Eastern and Western power centers. The framework, reportedly shaped by advisors close to former President Donald Trump's foreign policy vision, seeks to broker a power-sharing arrangement between the Tripoli-based government in the west and the eastern parliament backed by Marshal Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army.
According to diplomatic sources cited by Reuters and BBC Monitoring, the proposed deal would install a unified presidential council with balanced representation from both regions, while maintaining separate military commands for an initial transition period of 18 months. The plan also calls for a joint revenue oversight mechanism to manage Libya's oil exports, which averaged 1.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 according to OPEC data.
Key Elements of the Proposed Framework
The diplomatic blueprint contains several critical provisions that would reshape Libya's political landscape:
- A nine-member presidential council with three representatives from each of Libya's historical regions — Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan
- A unified cabinet of 24 ministers, equally divided between Eastern and Western nominees
- A joint military integration committee with a 36-month timeline for merging armed factions under a single defense ministry
- International monitoring presence coordinated through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, with additional observers from the African Union
- A constitutional referendum scheduled within 24 months of the agreement's signing
- Guarantees for women's political participation at a minimum of 30 percent in all governing bodies
Regional and International Reactions
Turkey, which has maintained significant military and political presence in Western Libya since 2020, has expressed cautious support for the framework. Ankara's Foreign Ministry issued a statement emphasizing the need for "Libyan-led ownership" of any political settlement. Meanwhile, Egypt and the UAE, key backers of Haftar's eastern camp, have reportedly pushed for stronger guarantees regarding military command structures in Cyrenaica.
Russia's position remains complex. While Moscow has historically maintained relationships with both Libyan factions, its primary strategic interest lies in preserving its access to military bases in North Africa. A European diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that "Moscow sees any unified Libyan government as potentially less amenable to bilateral military agreements than the current divided landscape."
The Human Cost of Division
Libya's decade-long fragmentation has exacted a severe humanitarian toll. The International Organization for Migration reports that over 580,000 Libyans remain internally displaced, while the World Health Organization documented 23 major attacks on healthcare facilities since 2020. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that 1.3 million people — roughly 18 percent of the population — require some form of humanitarian assistance in 2024.
Dr. Amina Al-Maghrabi, a Tripoli-based physician and member of the Libyan Medical Association, described the daily reality: "We have two health ministries, two central banks, and two of everything except suffering. My patients in the west cannot access specialized treatment centers in Benghazi, and families in the east face the same barrier. This forced marriage metaphor is accurate — except in a forced marriage, at least both parties know they are trapped together."
Why This Matters for Libya's Future
The "forced marriage" framework faces fundamental obstacles that have derailed previous peace efforts. The 2015 Skhirat Agreement, brokered by the UN, similarly promised power-sharing but collapsed within months due to competing interpretations and lack of enforcement mechanisms. Libya's oil wealth, managed through a nominally unified National Oil Corporation, has historically been a unifying factor, but recent disputes over revenue distribution between east and west have intensified tensions.
Marshal Haftar's camp insists on maintaining control over the eastern oil terminals — which account for approximately 60 percent of Libya's export capacity — as a precondition for any deal. The Tripoli government, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, has refused to cede sovereign control over energy resources to regional military commanders.
What Comes Next
Diplomats involved in the negotiations express measured optimism. A second round of talks is expected within weeks, hosted in a North African capital that has not been officially disclosed. The African Union's special envoy for Libya has called the current window "the most promising opportunity in three years" for a comprehensive settlement.
For ordinary Libyans, the stakes could not be higher. A functional unified government could unlock billions in frozen reconstruction investment, restore diplomatic ties that have frayed under years of isolation, and begin the long process of healing a nation split by geography, ideology, and the competing ambitions of foreign powers. Whether this forced marriage produces genuine partnership or merely formalizes division remains the defining question of Libya's next chapter.
— LibyaPress / Politics Desk
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